Why the United States of Europe List Won't Take Off
Running divided never leads to anything good, and perhaps the key topic isn't the right one
Often, we start things out of curiosity, sometimes as a reaction, and in other cases after long contemplation. I hope this decision is a mix of all these things put together.
I decided to start a newsletter because I realized I read a lot, think a lot, but don’t put all these thoughts in order.
Also, I'm a bit annoyed because in the place where I used to work, I wrote an article, and they didn’t end up publishing it (it was on a different topic). So I thought, I’ll open a Substack and publish it myself. They say, “if you want something done right, do it yourself.”
But this saying may not apply to the topic I’d like to discuss today, which is the United States of Europe list. As anyone who knows me is aware, this newsletter will focus on politics, which is one of the topics closest to my heart. It’s one of the hot topics of the moment.
I don't think the liberal coalition will achieve much success. Additionally, talking about a United States of Europe right now doesn’t make sense.
Currently, the list includes the following parties: Bonino’s +Europa, the Socialist Party, the Radicals, the Liberal Democrats (Libdem), Volt, and Renzi’s Italia Viva. Notably (and self-imposed) excluded, at the time of writing, is Calenda. Due to some incompatibility with Renzi and a supposed electoral agreement with certain former post-neo Christian Democrats from the South, like Cuffaro and Mastella, he wants to keep his distance.
This isn't a good sign; as things stand, the two centrist lists are barely reaching the 4% threshold. Running divided in the European elections is basically political suicide. But that's not all. Pizzarotti, who leads a faction of +Europa, seems very skeptical of any agreement with the “magician of Rignano” and is reportedly pulling out. He, like Di Maio, found himself more comfortable in the center after leaving the Five Star Movement.
Then there’s the affiliation of various parties with lists essentially led by Renzi and Calenda. In both cases, there are members from Renew and the Socialists. The latter would gain much more in alliances with members of the PD than with Italia Viva or Azione.
Diamanti, one of Italy's leading spin doctors, mentioned in Formiche that Italia Viva and +Europa could attract around 10% of the liberal electorate if they choose prominent figures from civil society. Unfortunately, these forces lack prominent figures in Italy, apart from perhaps Renzi and Bonino, due to the lack of local leaders. On the left, governors and mayors will certainly lead the PD to a strong result.
Recently, a poll circulated, which turned out to be false after SWG’s official denial. I'll leave discussion of the center-right and right for the next issue.
Finally, let me explain why the United States of Europe isn’t a priority.
First, nobody in Brussels is discussing it except for Volt, so there is no strong political will behind it. Second, citizens don’t seem to care, so it lacks the power to mobilize the electorate. Third, and this is for political nerds like myself, this solution is neither feasible nor desirable, in my view, as it copies existing models that aren’t suited to Europe. The EU is a unique experiment, with a complex structure, even for those who work in European affairs like myself.
Certainly, reform is necessary, especially to prevent the EU from being paralyzed by further Eastern expansion. Talking about a federation in such a diverse Europe isn’t utopia; it’s simply wrong and counterproductive. Such a debate can’t be reduced to pro- and anti- sides, each waving their own flags—unfortunately, that’s what’s happening on other fronts.
The EU needs reform that allows it to govern and be governed more effectively at every level. Let’s innovate, not copy from those who’ve always copied from us. At this point, establishing a common defense wouldn’t be a bad idea.
For now, I’ll try to maintain a biweekly schedule. See you next time!